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Event-Driven Earth - A System of Systems Approach to Geoscience Events

UN

Our satellites do not directly measure events; they measure the continuous physical state of the Earth system—a seamless field of temperature, reflectance, elevation, and chemical concentration. An event, from this perspective, is not a direct observation but a derived insight. It represents a significant departure from a baseline state, extracted from this continuous data through the detection of a threshold-crossing (a river exceeding flood stage), a rapid change (a sudden drop in ground elevation indicating a landslide), or a complex pattern recognized by sophisticated algorithms. The primary challenge of event-based science is therefore to transform the torrent of dense, continuous measurements into a catalog of discrete, meaningful events. This is NOT the same as derived variables which is simply a variable transformation of observations under the same spatial-temporal geometry.

This task is complicated further in cases where we cannot observe the event’s source, but only its cascading effects. A volcanic eruption in a remote, cloud-covered location might be initially invisible, but its event signature appears days later and thousands of kilometers away as an atmospheric sulfur dioxide plume. Here, we face a difficult inverse problem: we measure the effect and must use a combination of sensor data and physical models to trace it back to the source event. This requires not just seeing the what, but understanding the how and why of its propagation through the Earth system.

This fundamentally changes the nature of the data itself. While the raw satellite measurements are stored in dense, gridded formats like NetCDF or Zarr, an event catalog is fundamentally sparse and relational. A wildfire is not a discrete cube of pixels; it is a discrete entity with specific attributes: a start time, a location, a final burn area, an intensity, and a probable cause. This structure is more akin to a relational database than a simple data array, where one event (a drought) can be linked to another (a wildfire). To truly understand our planet, we must move beyond thinking in terms of continuous fields and towards building these rich, interconnected event databases.

The Earth’s systems are characterized by long periods of gradual change punctuated by these abrupt, high-impact events. A single satellite, observing at a fixed scale and cadence, struggles to capture both the slow precursory signals and the rapid event dynamics. A system of systems approach is the necessary solution to build these event catalogs. By integrating diverse sensors, we can monitor the long-term build-up of risk with one set of instruments, detect the trigger with another, and track the event’s evolution and consequences with a third, populating our relational understanding of an event-driven world.

🌍 Atmosphere: Capturing Transient Events in the Air

The atmosphere is a turbulent, four-dimensional system where a gradual build-up of energy can be released in minutes, creating hazardous events that are difficult to forecast and track.

Event: Hurricane Landfall & Tornado Formation

Event: Extreme Air Pollution Episode

Event: Volcanic Ash Cloud Incursion into Airspace

Event: Major Methane “Blowout” or Super-Emitter Release

🌳 Land: Witnessing Abrupt Changes on the Surface

The land surface often changes slowly, but events like fires, floods, and droughts can alter landscapes in a matter of hours or weeks.

Event: Flash Drought & Crop Failure

Event: Illegal Forest Clearing Pulse

Event: Catastrophic Flood Inundation

Event: Wildfire Ignition and Eruption

🌊 Ocean: Detecting Hazards in the Deep

The ocean’s surface is a dynamic interface where atmospheric and oceanic processes converge to create distinct, often hazardous, events.

Event: Marine Heatwave

Event: Catastrophic Oil Spill

Event: Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Outbreak

🧊 Cryosphere: Observing a World in Rapid Transition

Events in the cryosphere, such as the collapse of an ice shelf, are some of the most dramatic indicators of a changing climate.

Event: Ice Shelf Collapse or Major Calving

Event: Rapid Sea Ice Breakup

Event: Rain-on-Snow Flood

⛰️ Solid Earth: Capturing a Restless Planet

The ground beneath us moves constantly, with the slow build-up of strain released in sudden, catastrophic events like earthquakes and landslides.

Event: Volcanic Eruption

Event: Catastrophic Landslide Failure

Event: Infrastructure Failure from Ground Subsidence